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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 16323 times)
Andrea ForexMart
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Sep 11, 2017 12:54 AM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #1: Sep 13, 2017 12:57 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017

European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.

Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.

The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.

The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.

The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the  RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #2: Sep 14, 2017 01:57 AM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher. 
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #3: Sep 15, 2017 02:42 AM

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #4: Sep 19, 2017 03:18 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017

The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.

The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.

The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.
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rahimlakhany
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Reply #5: Sep 19, 2017 02:52 PM

I don’t think just analysis is the way forward. We have to be very wise and look at all the options. I worked with ForexMart, but they took me nowhere, so it is must not to repeat such mistake or else we could suffer heavily.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #6: Sep 20, 2017 01:09 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017

The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.

The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.

The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.

Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #7: Sep 21, 2017 12:44 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 21, 2017

The EURUSD trailed downwards during Wednesday's trading session after the release of Federal Research report as the central bank maintained interest rates. Moreover, the Fed Reserve announced that they progress with the quantitative tightening with an amount of 600 billion approximately, which is related to balance sheet reduction every year.

The FOMC also mentioned another rate increase scheduled presumably in December. Among 16 Fed members, there are 11 who voted for a hike this year. According to forecasts made by the officials, it might extend until next year to attain the neutral rate level of Fed funds. The Federal Reserve System gradually approach the issue about the three-time hike in 2019 and 2020 and the long-term rate was lowered down to 2.75%, with the previously 3.0%.

The euro-dollar pair weakened after the dollar made some progress along with the increase of yields. The support lies at 1.1834 region around the lows last week while resistance can be found at 1.2092 level near the previous highs.

The RSI (relative strength index) which functions as a momentum oscillator measuring the performance of the momentum, whether it will accelerate or decelerate. The indicator broke the support which shows an ascending negative momentum. On the other hand, the MACD histogram prints in the red, reflecting a downward trajectory that leads to a lower exchange rate.

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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #8: Sep 21, 2017 11:36 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.

Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.

The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.

In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the  speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.

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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #9: Sep 25, 2017 12:34 AM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session as the market looks for support close to the 112 level. Hence, the market will be more appealing to buyers because of the Federal Reserve plans to reduce their balance sheet. This market is sensitive to the “risk on” factor added to the overall interest rate outlook for both central banks.

The Federal is way earlier than the Bank of Japan regarding the rise in interest rates that makes it highly probable to move to the upper channel. It may be not wise to short this pair for now. However, there are buying opportunities in pullbacks. On the weekly chart, there is a consolidation seen in the 108 level below and 114.50 level above for long term. The next target level will be 114.50 while a decline would offer value to the market. There might be some noise every now and then because of “risks off” incidents worldwide in consideration of the upsurge in the stock market.

Incremental increase and opening bigger positions are the best means of trading this pair in the background of an upward rally. If the market breaks over the 115 handle, it will lead to a “buy-and-hold” situation although this may take some time to happen. For now, buyers will predominate this pair for short-term to take advantage of the current situation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #10: Sep 27, 2017 02:37 AM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017

The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing. 

The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.

The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.

Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #11: Oct 02, 2017 02:28 AM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair showed some choppiness in the past couple of days without any definite direction. The British pound was able to recover in the previous weeks, considering the fact that it is one of the strongest currency in the market. However, the Sterling was also affected by the dollar buying, forcing the Cable pair for a correction over the 1.35 level to trade beneath the 1.34 region in the past few days. Previously, the pound-dollar pair failed to broke the 1.3420 area after certain attempts which the pair did during the USD weakening.

In case that this pattern keep on going, it would likely cause further weakness in the GBP and could push the pair downwards. Moreover, we are waiting for a bundle of data from the United States later this week, which could possibly manage the greenback well bid in the near-term. These events when combined would likely place the sterling in the pressured area in the short-term.

On one side, the sterling pound was supported by the Bank of England (BOE), as the bank did not lose the possibility for a rate hike despite the ongoing Brexit process. Primarily, the market expected that the BoE will remain quiet during this kind of precarious scenario but the most recent meeting of the UK central bank clearly announced that they will only take action if necessary. This has provided support to the GBP, considering that British government showed optimistic views regarding the retention of the free market access to the European Union.

Ultimately, the manufacturing PMI data from the United Kingdom and the United States which could probably enough volatility. While it is essential for the bulls to break 1.3420 mark in the near-term for the completion of an upward trend.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #12: Oct 04, 2017 01:47 AM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged but then it declined towards the level of 113.25. It declined to the area of 112.75 with a bit of support. Hence, the market will attempt to rally from this level and resume the general uptrend recently. After some time, the price will further move up due to the risk of appetite from traders. Moreover, there is a possibility for the Federal Reserve to increase its rates or at least the be stricter with the monetary policy. Therefore, the market will move towards the 113.25 level then towards 114.50 and higher. The market will test the peak of the whole consolidation which sways to and fro. If the market successfully breaks higher than the 115 handle, the market would move much higher which is presumably towards 118 level.

If the price pullbacks from the said level, there would be more opportunities present to resume the value. It seems that the 112 will be largely supportive and the floor of consolidation will be seen at the level of 108. A pullback would open buying opportunities considering the support below. Eventually, both sellers and buyers will gain profits with the presence of volatility in the market if given sufficient time.

Notably, the market is influenced by the general stock market which is another indicator that must be monitored besides the S&P 500 and the DAX etc. Nevertheless, the stock market will climb higher as it is in a good condition. 
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #13: Oct 10, 2017 01:52 AM

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2017

There is volatility present in trading the NZD/USD pair as it reached a lower limit in the opening on Monday where this will be reversed and fill the gap and proceed with a decline again. There is a possibility for this to reach the level of 0.70 where there will most likely be a support level. This area has been supportive in the past which was also resistive and anticipates volatility around that number. Take into consideration that the New Zealand is highly sensitive to commodities as well as the global risk appetite. It can be noted that the stock market is performing well although, there is less liquidity in the New Zealand dollar compared to other currencies. Hence, there will most likely be more volatility than other markets.

It underwent a downtrend in the past few days which signifies the continuation of a bearish pressure. It’s too early to say if the market will break lower than 0.70 region and if it does, this would not be a good sign. Hereinafter, the market will look for the 0.68 level below as the next target support level based on the long-term charts.  Moreover, the Australian dollar is dropping which usually moves in the similar direction as the New Zealand dollar. It will either move up or be sold unless a breakout happens higher than the 0.7125 region and look at higher levels which is most likely above the 0.72 level. Volatility will not be surprising in this pair and seller will consider the riskier currencies in the present.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #14: Oct 12, 2017 03:18 AM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2017

The U.S. dollar declined at the outset of Wednesday’s trading session, however, the bucks were able to find support on top the 112 handle to conduct a reversal, showing active existence.
The American dollar must keep on finding lots of support at 112 level because every pull back will provide plenty of support from that region. It is better when it offered some “floor” but a break down underneath there would offer a massive support below the 111 mark. With this, buyers will return to the market in a short period of time except when the Federal Reserve rejected the proposed interest rate hike.

The issue about rate hike has been the talk of the town for some time and maybe it’s time for the Fed to have at least some hints about their position regarding this matter, as the market really needs to see some progress or else they might lose their credibility. Many are intrigued on how many times the Fed will increase its rates which most participants would search within the Meeting Minutes. Hence, it will take some time to get a clear answer but this idea was already established within the marketplace and probably there is no any reason to conduct such rally.
The Bank of Japan remains to be soft which makes it reasonable to enter the 114.50 region. This level is the top of the longer-term consolidation. It appears that market imposes a “buy only” mode.
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