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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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Obasi FXMart
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Reply #495: Dec 01, 2021 04:48 PM

Technical analysis recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 1, 2021

EUR/USD

The bears descended to the area of the final border of the monthly Ichimoku gold cross (1.1290) last month. It was not possible to break through the level, the closing of the month was indicated by a long lower shadow of the monthly candle. Therefore, the bulls now have opportunities to develop the rebound from the encountered support. In this situation, it will be possible to make further plans and consider new upward prospects after the formation of a rebound from 1.1290 and consolidation above the important resistance zone of 1.1439 - 1.1492, where several of the strongest levels in the higher timeframes combined (monthly levels + weekly short-term trend + closing levels of the daily Ichimoku cross).

Yesterday, the nearest resistance along the way was tested the daily Fibo Kijun (1.1379). Alternatively, the breakdown of the monthly support at 1.1290 and the update of the November low (1.1186), will allow us to consider continuing the decline and strengthening the bearish mood. In this case, the closest downward pivot point will be the weekly target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.0806 - 1.0960).

The bulls in the smaller timeframes limited themselves yesterday to testing the final border of the classic pivot levels and failed to continue the rise further. At the moment, they still have the advantage. Today, their intraday pivot points are set at 1.1402 - 1.1467 - 1.1550 (classic pivot levels). The key support levels, which are now located at 1.1319 (central Pivot level) and 1.1267 (weekly long-term trend), allow the bulls to defend their interests despite the long-term trading in the correction zone.

A consolidation below will change the current balance of power and bring back the relevance of bearish targets, such as the minimum extremum (1.1186) and the support of the classic pivot levels (1.1254 - 1.1171 - 1.1106).

GBP/USD

The bears tried to reach the monthly support (1.3164) at the end of the previous month but failed to test the level or close the month next to it. Nevertheless, November indicated the nearest bearish plans entering the bearish zone relative to the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.3248) and breaking through the monthly support (1.3164).

As for the bulls, it is important for them to keep their position above the current support and attraction zone 1.3248 (lower border of the weekly cloud) - 1.3164 (monthly Fibo Kijun), regain support for the daily short-term trend (1.3351), and also strive to restore their positions to weekly levels (1.3516-76), eliminate the daily dead cross (1.3503 - 1.3586) and rise to the daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bullish traders in the smaller intervals failed to consolidate above the key levels and reverse the moving average yesterday, which resulted in the continuing struggle for key levels. Today's key levels are at 1.3286 (central pivot level) and 1.3322 (weekly long-term trend). A movement below the levels gives preference to the bears. Their pivot points are currently set at 1.3203 - 1.3109 - 1.3026 (support for the classic pivot levels). It is worth noting that the aforementioned levels give preference to the bulls. Their upward targets are at 1.3380 - 1.3463 - 1.3557 (resistance levels of the classic pivot levels).
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Reply #496: Dec 02, 2021 08:11 AM

Is the pound sterling the restless hostage of Omicron?

The British currency has temporarily gone into the shadow of the aggressive US dollar and the volatile euro. At the same time, the pound is trying to assert itself, while resisting pressure from the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus.

Before Omicron's appearance on the scene, the key drivers of the global market were traders' expectations about the early curtailment of incentives and a rise in rates. These sentiments have now intensified as the new strain has made its own adjustments. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, announced his readiness to accelerate these processes amid off-scale inflation and general instability. He believes that the new COVID-19 mutation provokes prolonged inflationary pressure.

Earlier, the Fed's head agreed that the strongest growth in consumer prices was recorded in the United States, which could push the national economy into the pit of stagflation. Against the background of extremely high inflation in the US, the yield spread between ten-year and two-year Treasury bonds has sharply declined. This indicator turned out to be at a minimum over the past 10 months, which indicates a further downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.

In the current situation, the British currency is experiencing serious overloads. Some restlessness of the pound, bordering on confusion, destabilizes the market. According to analysts, it risks becoming a hostage of Omicron. Despite the current difficulties, the pound is trying to cope with the situation.

The danger of a new strain of coronavirus for the British economy was noted by one of the representatives of the Bank of England. According to the official, Omicron has called into question the further growth of consumer confidence in the country. Economists fear that the new COVID-19 mutation will provoke a drop in demand for consumer services and logistics problems. At the same time, experts believe that Omicron should not affect the Bank of England's plans for a possible tightening of the PEPP.

On Wednesday, global markets and risky assets remained stable. The British currency added 0.17%, reaching the level of 1.3318. However, the triumph was temporary: the pound remained near a one-year low against the US dollar, and then sharply fell to 1.3195. The reason for this fall was the market's doubts about the Bank of England's early interest rate hike. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3291. There is currently no clear trend in the pair, and the support level of 1.3263 restrains the bears' dominance.

Many market participants are quite optimistic. Investors believe that the new strain of coronavirus will not affect the further recovery of the global economy. The pound is trying to consolidate in this trend and strengthen its current positions. According to UOB Group analysts, the pound may decline to 1.3260 in the coming weeks, although this scenario is unlikely.

"A further drawdown of the GBP is possible, but a strong support level near 1.3195 will be a tough nut to crack," the UOB Group believes. According to analysts, the pound is not in danger of serious weakening in the short term.
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Reply #497: Dec 03, 2021 10:42 AM

Is USD dependent on stock market?

The US dollar is again undergoing a period of volatility, with rare periods of stability, as USD traders await the US labor market report.

Early on Friday, December 3, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1289, below the previous closing price of 1.1299. The US currency edged up slightly before the release of non-farm payrolls, fuelled by concerns over the new Omicron strain, which have now eased.

As markets remain relatively calm, the US dollar has strengthened its position in the run-up to the non-farm payroll release. Strong US labor market data would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates early, analysts say.

Recently, the US dollar has been moving largely under the influence of key interest rate changes, with safe-haven investment demand affecting it only negligibly. The American currency rate has been highly dependent on the global stock market - a new norm, according to some experts.

At this moment, the USD cash flow is determined by equity volatility, as well as risk hedging related to it. Earlier, the inverse correlation was in effect. The Fed's key interest rate is crucial for the market. The yield of US 2-year treasury bonds, which is closely connected with the Deutsche Bank volatility index, is used to determine the future rate. Amid spiraling inflation, investors expect an early rate hike, which would push up the bond yield and the US dollar.

The US non-farm payrolls are in focus at the end of the week. The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 4.5%, with non-farm employment projected to increase by 550,000. The amount of jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began.

Strong US labor market data are unlikely to propel the dollar upward, but it could limit the pessimistic sentiment over the spread of Omicron variant, and allow the Fed to go through with the plan to wind down QE and hike the rates in 2022.

While the markets remain somewhat volatile, with strong NFP expectations stabilizing it slightly, the greenback is likely to maintain upside potential. Satisfactory payroll data and the possibility of an earlier end of QE would push the dollar up.

According to an outlook by Goldman Sachs, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times - in June, September, and December, followed by further monetary tightening. Downside risks for the global economy caused by Omicron would boost demand for USD as a safe-haven, giving it support, Goldman Sachs analysts note.
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Reply #498: Dec 06, 2021 06:06 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2021

Over the last trading day, on Friday, the technical picture for the euro has slightly shifted towards growth. The daily rally was small, only 16 points, but the Marlin Oscillator started advancing, indicating an intention to exit the zone of negative values. This advanced growth is shown in the daily chart with gray rectangles.

The probability of price growth, that is, overcoming the signal level of 1.1375 (November 18 high), increases to 60%. Then the 1.1448 target will open. Overcoming it and, accordingly, the MACD line, will become an almost confirmed sign of further medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, since the opening of the session, the price has gone down, which still creates the risk of a deeper decline. This risk is realized when the price moves below the MACD indicator line, below 1.1254, the target will open at 1.1170. Continued growth is likely to resume with the price breaking Friday's high of 1.1334.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 6, 2021

Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line and the daily price channel line (green) for the third time in three days. It failed once again and ended the day with a decline of 29 points.

Now we see that with the support of the declining Marlin Oscillator in the negative zone, the price is trying to overcome the signal support at 112.54. If this happens, then with the greatest probability, the price will go further down to the target of 110.77 - to the lower embedded line of the price channel.

The technical picture is more complex on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the lower border of its own channel, and the line itself is already in the positive area. This is a sign of price growth towards overcoming resistance at 113.20, which corresponds to the MACD line on the daily chart. This will be another exit above this line, and it may no longer be false - the 114.05 target level will be overcome.

A decline below 112.54 will automatically mean that the oscillator will exit from its ascending channel to the downside. We are waiting for the development of events.
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Reply #499: Dec 07, 2021 07:38 AM

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 7, 2021

The outlook for the British pound's growth looks optimistic. The convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is strengthening, the target of 1.3410 - Fibonacci level of 123.6% is slightly opening. But in order for it to become fully open, the price needs to overcome the immediate resistance of the 138.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3315. Failure could push the price down to the 161.8% Fibonacci level (1.3160).

The price convergence with Marlin is formed on the four-hour chart. At the moment, the signal line of the oscillator is crossing the border with the territory of growth. The price goes to attack the 138.2% Fibonacci level and the MACD line. Success will open the specified target of 1.3410.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 7, 2021

In yesterday's review, we identified the Australian dollar's 0.7007/65 range as free roaming territory. At the moment, the price is approaching the upper level of this range, but the price does not show a clear intention to overcome it - the Marlin Oscillator is weakening and shows a sign of a downward reversal. Success, however, will allow the price to hit the 0.7107 target level, which is the Aug 20 low.

The price is still in a downward trend on the four-hour chart. Even the leading oscillator Marlin has not yet left the negative zone. It will probably do this when the price moves above the 0.7065 level.

But the MACD indicator line is next to the 0.7107 target level, which can slow down the upward movement. Therefore, it will only be possible to count on a medium-term price growth after the price breaks above 0.7107. Overcoming the support at 0.7007 will open the bearish target level of 0.6950.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia is publishing a decision on monetary policy, so a strong momentum in any direction is possible.
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Reply #500: Dec 08, 2021 10:17 AM

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/8/2021

If anyone needed proof that the market was completely disoriented and in complete prostration, the reaction to the data on GDP in the euro area was incredibly clear. The third assessment was in sharp contrast to the previous two, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 14.4% to 3.7%. So, judging by the latest data, the rate of economic growth has slowed down to 3.9%. In other words, the eurozone economy is doing a little better than it was anticipated over the past few weeks, when they began to publish first the first and then the second GDP estimates. Undoubtedly, this is an extremely positive moment, which should have led to a noticeable strengthening of the single European currency. However, instead, it began to decline actively. Which is absurd in itself. Apparently realizing this fact, a rebound began a few hours later. Yes, such that in the end everything returned to its original values.

GDP change (Europe):

Today, the picture of the day will be largely similar, due to the release of data on open vacancies in the United States. And it is these data that will become an excellent reason not only for speculation, but also for a noticeable weakening of the dollar. The fact is that until now no one has deigned to revise the official forecast of 10,400,000 open vacancies. In the previous month, there were 10,438,000 of them. But the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor clearly indicates that these very vacancies will be noticeably less. That is, we can talk about a noticeable reduction in the number of open vacancies, which will be interpreted as a deterioration in the situation on the labor market. This is quite enough for a sharp weakening of the dollar. Nevertheless, the very fact of a decrease in the number of open vacancies does not contradict the logic of a strong decrease in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it is a reflection of a significant improvement in the situation on the labor market. So after the initial outburst, which will be largely emotional in nature, the situation will quickly return to normal. That is, to the starting positions.

Job Openings (United States):

The EURUSD pair has slowed down the recovery cycle relative to the correctional movement in the area of the value of 1.1227. This led to a stop and, as a result, a reverse movement towards the level of 1.1300.

The technical instrument RSI in the hourly period first gave a signal that the euro was oversold at the moment when the 30 line was crossed. After that, a buy signal was received, which was confirmed when the 50 line was crossed from the bottom up.

On the daily chart, a downward trend remains, in the structure of which a correction cycle has emerged.

Expectations and prospects:

Speculative excitement has led to the formation of a V-shaped formation in the market, where the 1.1300 level serves as a resistance. So, in order for the subsequent growth in the volume of long positions to occur, the quote must stay above the value of 1.1310. Otherwise, stagnation may occur.

Comprehensive indicator analysis provides a buy signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to the recent bounce in price. In the medium term, technical instruments are oriented towards a downward trend, signaling a sell.
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Reply #501: Dec 09, 2021 07:37 AM

Gold falls while waiting for a strong impulse

Gold is stuck again in a narrow price range. On Wednesday, the level of $1,780 seemed to magnetize gold quotes to itself. They were brought into a state of stupor by comprehensive uncertainty.

The precious metal ended yesterday's session with a very modest increase. It rose by less than 0.1% or 80 cents. The final price was $1,785.50, although its price reached the high ($1,794. 30) since December 1.

Gold failed to gain a foothold at a level close to the key one due to the lack of convincing impulses. At the moment, all the factors that one way or another may affect the pricing of the yellow asset look vague.

This concerns the situation with a new strain of coronavirus, the future course of the US Federal Reserve, as well as the risk of a military conflict in Ukraine. Now, the market expects certainty on all these issues.

Omicron can still help

The panic over the new COVID-19 strain, which has been observed over the past almost 2 weeks, is gradually fading. Investors are again showing interest in risky assets such as stocks. On Wednesday, US stock markets closed in a positive zone after receiving good news from Pfizer.

The pharmaceutical company reported that during laboratory tests, 3 doses of its vaccine managed to neutralize the "Omicron" strain. In addition, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that a new vaccine, which, if necessary, will be developed specifically for this COVID-19 mutation, may be ready by March next year.

As concerns about Omicron weaken, traders' appetite for a safe haven asset decreases. However, experts believe that now is not the right time to part with gold.

According to analyst Ross Norman, the value of the yellow asset may still find support from coronavirus risks in the near future, since investors will focus at the end of the year on the prospect of introducing more serious lockdowns due to the active spread of Omicron.

Is the Fed's strategy a real threat?

The next meeting of the US central bank on monetary policy will be held on December 14-15. Many analysts are confident that the easing of concerns about the new COVID-19 strain, which is observed this week, actually frees the hands of the US Federal Reserve.

Now, all the attention of the regulator is focused on accelerating the pace of curtailing the asset purchase program, which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it would be advisable not to delay this issue and consider it at the next meeting.

Such a rush is due to the fact that the central bank is striving to start raising interest rates as soon as possible and increased inflation no longer seems to the regulator to be a temporary phenomenon.

Some experts believe that the trigger may be tomorrow's publication of the consumer price index in the United States. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to the highest level in recent decades.

Before the release of important statistics, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose above 1.5%, which put pressure on gold. However, the metal managed to resist a sharp decline and even closed in a positive zone, as the dollar index turned out to be weaker than the euro and fell by 0.5% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, market strategist Ricardo Evangelista predicts that the US currency will appreciate in the coming days. He said that this currency will find support as soon as the Fed's hawkish stance becomes more evident. This will deal a devastating blow to gold.

Gold loves geopolitical risks

Another important factor in the gold market, which has been closely watched by investors in recent days, is the escalation of the military conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Gold, which loves geopolitical risks, has responded to the long-awaited negotiations with small growth. During the day, it rose by 0.3%. However, there is no significant increase in the demand for a safe shelter in the market now, because "nothing has changed" after the negotiations and there is still great uncertainty around this situation, analyst Jeff Wright said.

Meanwhile, Market strategist Jim Vykoff believes gold will ultimately benefit from the meeting's failure to de-escalate Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine.

According to him, the situation will become even tenser. This means that safe-haven assets (gold and silver) are likely to be more in demand in the near future.
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Reply #502: Dec 13, 2021 05:33 AM

American stock indices rose 0.6-1%

As a result of the entire last week, it increased by 3.8%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 3.6%, which was the most significant rise since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4%. This is the most significant increase since March.

Fresh inflation data was released on Friday, pointing to the fastest rise in consumer prices in the country since June 1982. However, investors hope that the rate of growth in prices has reached or very close to the peak values. Consumer prices (CPI) in the US in November soared 6.8% compared to the same month last year. Inflation accelerated from 6.2% a month earlier and was in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, the indicator remained above the Federal Reserve System (FRS) target of 2% for the ninth consecutive month.

Consumer and tech sectors on Friday posted the strongest gains in share prices among the S&P 500 industry sub-indices.

Consumer confidence in the US in December rose to 70.4 points from 67.4 points in November, which was the lowest in 10 years, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this figure. Analysts on average had expected a decline to 67.1 points, Trading Economics reported. At the same time, inflationary expectations for the medium term (next year) remained at the level of 4.9% in the current month, for the long term (5 years) - at the level of 3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday increased by 216.3 points (0.6%) and reached 35970.99 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 for the day increased by 44.57 (0.95%) - up to 4712.02 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose by 113.23 points (0.73%), amounting to 15,630.6 points.

Costco Wholesale, the operator of the largest network of club stores in the United States, in the first financial quarter, which ended on November 21, increased its net profit by 13% and revenue by 19%, which was better than experts' expectations. The company's shares rose 6.6% on Friday.

One of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor products Broadcom in the fourth financial quarter (August-October) received financial results above the consensus forecast. The company also announced a massive share buyback program and a quarterly dividend hike. The price of its shares soared by 8.3%.

Oracle Corp., one of the world's leading software developers, posted a net loss in its second financial quarter, but adjusted earnings and revenues rose above analysts' expectations. The company's shares jumped 15.6%.

Among the leaders of the rise in value among the components of the Dow Jones were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 3%, Microsoft Corp., which rose 2.8% and Apple Inc., which also rose 2.8%.

Meanwhile, Chewy Inc.'s share price fell more than 8% despite strong reporting. The online pet store reported 24% revenue growth in the third financial quarter. The company's net loss in the quarter ended October 31 was $ 32.2 million against a loss of $ 32.8 million in the same period a year earlier.

Peloton Interactive fell 5.4% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from above the market.
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Reply #503: Dec 14, 2021 05:51 AM

European equities closed lower

Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.8%, Germany's DAX shed 0.01%, France's CAC 40 shed 0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35 shed 0.5% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 0.6%.

Air France-KLM shares lost 3.4%. The airline said it had paid the French authorities 500 million in debt repayment totaling 4 billion. In addition, Air France-KLM agreed with the country's authorities to change the debt repayment schedule: if earlier it had to pay off the debt in full in May 2023, now it will be able to pay it off until May 2025.

Germany's Daimler Truck Holding AG, a truck maker, rose 10.7% in its second trading session after divesting from Daimler. JPMorgan analysts have set the target price for the company's shares at 48 euros per share, while Bank of America has set a different price, 40 euros. At the same time, Daimler AG's value fell 0.3% yesterday.

The capitalization of the German software developer SAP AG increased by 2.6% after analysts at UBS improved the recommendation on the stock of the company from neutral to buy.

Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL has confirmed that it is in talks to buy the Swiss drug manufacturer Vifor Pharma. Vifor Pharma shares jumped 18.5%.

Credit Suisse Group AG on Monday announced a structural reorganization and appointed new chief executives for its core divisions. The structure of the bank from next year will consist of 4 main business divisions and 4 regional divisions. Credit Suisse lost 1.8%.

Shares in British mining company Rio Tinto fell 0.1%. The company will write off $ 2.3 billion in debt from the Mongolian government to finally move forward with the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper project.

The market is awaiting meetings of the world's largest central banks scheduled for this week.

The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is holding a two-day meeting on December 14-15, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will release their decisions on December 16, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 17.

The ECB is expected to discuss at the upcoming meeting the future prospects for its asset repurchase programs, while the Fed may decide to step up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program, which it launched in November.

The Bank of England is likely to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, as the latest GDP data proved disappointing, and in addition, the country's authorities are introducing new restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The UK National Statistical Office (ONS) on Friday reported a slowdown in the country's GDP growth in October to 4.6% on an annualized basis from 5.3% a month earlier.

The statistics released on Monday showed an acceleration in the growth of wholesale prices in Germany in November to a record 16.6% in annual terms. As noted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), the growth of wholesale prices accelerated compared to 15.2% in October against the background of higher prices for raw materials and intermediate goods.
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Reply #504: Dec 15, 2021 05:20 AM

EUR/USD: Widening gap between the US dollar and Euro

Analysts said that serious problems in the EUR/USD pair are caused by an imbalance between both currencies. Bank of America experts point to the excessive overvaluation of the US dollar and the lack of attention to the euro.

Before the Fed meeting, the issue of a fair assessment of the euro and the US dollar is extremely relevant. According to Bank of America reports, the US currency turned out to be overvalued by investors this month, while the euro is undervalued. Analysts believe that this upsets the balance in the EUR/USD pair.

The calculations by Bank of America's currency strategists demonstrate that the current greenback estimate is 0.7 points higher than the long-term average, while the euro is 1.1 points lower. These indicators are negatively affected by rising inflation expectations in the United States (up to 6%) and extremely high inflation, which has reached peak values for the last almost 40 years. The current situation increases the degree of tension between the US dollar and the euro. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair experienced noticeable volatility, trading around the level of 1.1270.

By the middle of this week, the US dollar maintained its growth, unlike the euro amid expectations of the most important Fed meeting. Despite the growing tension, the dynamics of the American currency are almost unchanged in relation to other key currencies. The euro, on the contrary, has to make a lot of efforts to stay afloat. Experts are afraid of increasing dissonance in the EUR/ USD pair, although there are no serious prerequisites for this.

In anticipation of the Fed meeting, many analysts turned to the Fed's updated dot forecast, the so-called dot plot. Experts carefully analyze the data presented in order to predict the rate of increase in the key rate in 2022. According to the previous dot plot published in September 2021, the federal funds rate should be increased once (until December 2022). However, a lot has changed now, so the markets are confident that in the coming year the rate will be raised twice (25 bp at each meeting).

Bank of America experts believe that the regulator is able to surprise the markets and raise rates following the meeting on Wednesday, December 15. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to a shock and force you to radically rebuild. On the contrary, if the completion of the asset purchase program goes twice as fast, that is, it will be completely curtailed in March 2022, then the markets will remain calm. It can be recalled that this option is the most expected.

At the same time, there is a possibility of another scenario: if the regulator does not raise rates at the current meeting, then it will have to be done twice (by 0.50%) in March next year. The reason for this decision is the overheating of the US labor market. Therefore, most market participants expect the regulator to raise rates in the second half of 2022. At the same time, many investors do not rule out a weakening of inflation next year, despite the persistence of price pressure.

A surprise for the market may be the updated December "dot" forecasts of the Fed (dot plot), which allow for the probability of a threefold rate hike in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will help the US dollar strengthen its position, but stock markets will be under pressure.
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Reply #505: Dec 16, 2021 12:23 PM

US dollar continues its growth

The US dollar celebrates the victory after the meeting of the Fed, which the markets were looking forward to. It managed to rise and continue the upward trend, despite a temporary decline.

The growth of this currency accelerated after the decision of the regulator, which announced the preservation of the interest rate and the completion of incentive programs. It can be recalled that the Fed expected to leave the key rate at 0-0.25% per annum and announced its readiness to double the pace of curtailing the asset repurchase program (from the previous $15 billion to $ 30 billion per month). The implementation of these measures is planned from January next year. According to preliminary calculations, such rates of QE reduction will allow the central bank to fully complete the program by March 2022.

According to Fed chairman Jerome Powell, the early elimination of stimulus programs is necessary because of extremely high inflation. Fed representatives believe that the acceleration of inflation in the United States and the strengthening of inflationary pressure amid a prolonged labor shortage significantly affect economic forecasts and the current monetary policy. It is worth noting that the regulator kept rates near zero until the situation in the US labor market improved.

Representatives of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) presented an updated forecast on the trajectory of rates, which implies their threefold increase in 2022-2023. Along with this, the authorities expect a gradual decrease in inflation.

Experts emphasize that the regulator's forecasts on rates are not a pre-approved plan. This process is determined by the current economic situation, according to which it is adjusted. Against this background, Fed officials came to the conclusion that the most appropriate is a gradual increase in rates.

According to experts, the rapid growth of the USD after the Fed meeting occurred against the backdrop of a pronounced "hawkish" position of the regulator. Representatives of the Federal Reserve predict a sharper increase in rates than the market expected. In view of this, US assets rose significantly: the US dollar continued its upward trend, and the leading S&P 500 index interrupted a two-day decline.

The current situation favourably affected the EUR/USD pair, which was trading at the level of 1.1284 on Thursday morning. Like the American one, the European currency also felt confident, gradually gaining momentum. It tried to consolidate in the current positions, but to no avail. As a result, the single currency fell to low values.

The near-term prospects of the US dollar are quite optimistic. Many experts agree that the Fed helped the US dollar to rise, due to which it received a growth impulse. Analysts said that this trend will continue, since it has enough resources to withstand the difficulties that arise.
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Reply #506: Dec 20, 2021 08:27 AM

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 17, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar traded in a range of 80 points, it closed the day by gaining 15 points, which is not very impressive with the fall of the US dollar index by 0.36%. At the moment, the price is between two levels: 0.7171 and 0.7227. Now the breakthrough above the upper level of the 0.7227 range will open the target along the MACD line at 0.7285, consolidating below 0.7171 can send the price to the 0.7065 level, which was not reached at the beginning of the week.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator formed a divergence with the price. At the moment, the price is staying above the balance indicator line (red moving one), which retains the bulls' advantage. The situation turns out to be twofold, therefore the technical signal levels 0.7171 and 0.7227 acquire the main attention and the main role. The bears' first target at 0.7130 is the MACD line on H4.

US indices closed lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% on Friday and ended trading at 35365.44 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 1.03% to 4620.64 points.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lost less than 0.1% to 15169.68 points.

By the end of the week, the Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve System (FRS) decided to accelerate the pace of winding down its asset-buying program and signaled its readiness to raise rates several times next year. In addition, the Bank of England was the first among the world's leading central banks to raise its key rate to 0.25% from 0.1%.

Meanwhile, Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities believes that the sharp decline in the US stock market was caused rather not by fears of tightening monetary policy, but by other reasons. In particular, he points out that Friday was the so-called Quadruple Witching Day, when index and stock futures and options expire. On this day, there is often increased volatility in the market.

A strong decline on Friday was demonstrated by securities of financial companies. Quotes from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 3.9%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 2.3%, quotations of the payment system American Express Co. fell 1.8%, quotations of Visa Inc. dropped by 1.2%.

General Motors shares tumbled 5.5% on news of the unexpected resignation of Dan Amman, head of the self-driving car business.

American chain restaurant operator Darden Restaurants fell 5%. The company released strong quarterly earnings, but gave a weak annual forecast and said its CEO, Eugene Lee, will step down next May.

Johnson & Johnson's capitalization fell 2.8% after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that citizens get vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccines instead of J&J vaccines because of the risk of blood clots.

Meanwhile, FedEx Corp. jumped 5% in trading after one of the world's largest transportation and logistics companies beat market expectations in adjusted earnings and revenues and improved its full-year forecast.
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Reply #507: Dec 21, 2021 09:02 AM

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 21, 2021

The pound approached the first target level of 1.3160 by 34 points by the end of Monday. The success of the bears, that is, overcoming this support, will open the second target at 1.3012 - the October 2019 high. The Marlin Oscillator is declining in the negative area. The general trend is downward.

On yesterday's four-hour chart, the strength of the resistance of the MACD indicator line was confirmed - the price turned down from it (arrow). The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the negative area. We look forward to further declines.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 21, 2021

At the end of yesterday, the situation with regard to the yen had practically not changed - the price continued to stay between the support of the trend line of the price channel at 113.22 and the MACD indicator line at 113.96. On December 15, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reversed from the zero line, now it moves horizontally below it - this is the market's preparation for a decline. Also, stock indices fell yesterday: S&P 500 -1.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.30%, which helps the pair USD/JPY to develop a downward movement. The target of the decline at 110.80 is the price channel line of the higher timeframe.

On the four-hour scale, the price is strongly supported by the MACD indicator line. Accordingly, consolidating below it becomes the main condition for the formation of a medium-term fall. The direct signal will be the price crossing below the level of 113.22.

The Marlin Oscillator has crossed the border with the growth territory, but this may turn out to be a false signal.470
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Reply #508: Dec 22, 2021 06:45 AM

US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.60%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones climbed 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.40%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Nike Inc, which rose in price by 9.65 points (6.15%), to close at 166.63. Boeing Co rose 5.86% or 11.04 points to end at 199.52. American Express Company added 3.22% or 5.02 points to close at 160.91.

The biggest losers were Merck & Company Inc, which fell 1.14% or 0.87 points to end the session at 75.54. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.58% or 0.31 points to end at 52.78, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.32% or 0.54 points to 167. , 21.

The growth leaders among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading were Citrix Systems Inc, which gained 13.63% to 95.05, Micron Technology Inc, which gained 10.54% to close at 90.68, and also Expedia Inc, which was up 9.14% to end at 177.27.

The biggest losers were General Mills Inc, which fell 4.03% to close at 65.06. The Kroger Company shed 3.60% to end the session at 43.87. Pfizer Inc was down 3.39% to 58.95.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Reliance Global Group Inc, which rose in price by 78.69% to the level of 5.450, Biofrontera Inc, which gained 44.75%, to close at 11.03, as well as shares IsoPlexis Corp rose 40.82% to end at 6.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that went up (2,671) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (604), while the quotes of 88 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2889 companies rose in price, 880 declined, and 215 remained at the level of the previous close.

Aldeyra The shares fell to a 52-week low, shedding 50.91%, 3.63 points to trade at 3.50. Biofrontera Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 44.75%, 3.41 points, to trade at 11.03. DBV Technologies shares fell to historic lows, down 48.52%, 1.310 points, and ended trading at 1.390. CytomX Therapeutics Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 40.00%, 2.580 points to trade at 3.870.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 8.13% to trade at 21.01.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.28% or 5.05 to $ 1,789.55 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.92%, or 2.69, to $ 71.30 a barrel. Futures contract for Brent oil for February delivery was flat 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 74.03 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.02% to hit 1.1286, while the USD / JPY was up 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.10% at 96.445.
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Reply #509: Dec 23, 2021 09:44 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2021

Yesterday, the euro decided to choose an upward direction, intending to complicate and lengthen the horizontal movement, which began on November 29-30. There are about 20 points until the resistance of the MACD line (1.1363), and without breaking the main scenario and its own sideways movement, it is likely that the price will turn down from this resistance. If it overcomes the 1.1363 level, the main scenario will change to a price reversal from the target level of 1.1415. But if the price settles above 1.1415, then an alternative scenario will take effect with the price rising to the target level of 1.1572 (the January 2019 high).

An interesting situation develops on the Marlin Oscillator. Yesterday's exit of the signal line from the rectangular area of consolidation, marked with a gray area, repeats the exit of the signal line from the same consolidation on October 28 - it is marked with a red oval. And, as you can see, after the signal line returned to the range, the price fell.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, Marlin is confidently rising in the positive area - the situation is upward. Probably, the price will decide to test the strength of the resistance range of 1.1363-1.1415.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 23, 2021

The Australian dollar approached the resistance of 0.7227 for the second time in the last five days. According to one of the scenarios we are considering, the price may turn down from the resistance today. A modified, but also a scenario for a reversal, assumes a price reversal from the MACD line in the area of 0.7275. Settling above 0.7275 reveals the growth scenario for the aussie to hit the first target at 0.7414. Returning to the area below 0.7171 will open the target at 0.7065.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in an upward position. The planned reversals of the price and the oscillator cannot yet clarify the situation of the higher scale, we are waiting for a signal from the target levels - which one the price could overcome.
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