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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 39111 times)
Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #45: Jan 16, 2018 11:43 PM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2018

There is a hint of bullishness in yesterday’s trading session of the pound since there is no fundamental news to affect the market aside from the bank of the holiday in the U.S. As a result, the pound bulls have become relax in trading. Most likely, this is one of the reasons why the pair has been steady in the past few days but failed to break the level of 1.38 amid the weakness of the dollar.

Other than that, it could possibly be because of a big news expected to come this week, particularly the inflation data and retail sales data. Traders and investors anticipate the data prior to positioning themselves to any direction. The incoming data from the U.K. came out stronger which brought choppiness to trading while others came in weak, which has brought further uncertainty to the Brexit negotiations and affect the U.K. economy.

Yet, the pound was able to take advantage of euro strengthening and the weakening of the dollar. Although, this may not last for a long time. More importantly, the pound is beginning to gain momentum to move higher regardless of its condition. Also, rate hikes from the U.K. are also becoming an issue after its one rate hike last year. The succeeding hikes are deemed to be more important and the central bank has to be certain on its support actions from last year to boost the U.K. economy and confidence of investors.

There is no major news from the U.S. for today but the U.S. is presumed to return to the market following their long weekend holiday. On the other end, the inflation from the U. K. is highly anticipated later this day as it will have a significant insight on the movement of the market and give a hint on which direction does the GBP/USD pair will go.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #46: Jan 17, 2018 11:36 PM

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 17, 2018

There has been a choppy trading for the U.S. dollar during the Tuesday session, the day of returning to work for Americans. Looking at the hourly chart, a slight downward occurred. There are also some major levels and expect the presence of noise in the market.

The U.S. dollar swayed back and forth yesterday. The next trading level would be at 111 which is a bit resistive. If the market breaks higher, it will probably be at 112 which has been significant in the past. It seems that there will be downward pressure and push the market towards 110. Overall, there will be noise in the market that puts the global economic outlook at a better position and at the same time, there is general selling of the U.S. dollar.

Hence, there will be high volatility in the market, which will attract more traders. If the pair breaks lower than the significant level of 110, the market will probably move down towards 108 soon after. Moreover, there are a lot of areas to cover which will highlight every 100 pips. Amid the presence of noise, the market could bounce back which would become an important pullback.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #47: Jan 18, 2018 09:16 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2018

There is choppiness in trading the EUR/USD pair and continues its trading between 1.22 and 1.23 without no specific direction yet. Yesterday, the pair moved higher in the first half of the day, which will most likely favor the dollar. However, it shifted by the end of the day when the dollar has recovered and became stronger.

The euro has been gaining momentum in the past week although the euro rallied against the dollar in the previous month, which was influenced by the decline of the dollar while the euro became stronger. It was only in the past week that the euro started to strengthen independently due to the possibility of ECB tapering and completion of the quantitative easing by the end of the year. This largely influenced the euro as it rose higher and has most likely continued during the first half of yesterday. It reached the level of 1.23 and established a beeline on the trend. 

Yet, this was reversed during the second half of the day as the ECB was thrown into a disarray following the quick rise of the euro and should be brought down through statements and confirmation of the QE to return to normal levels. It clearly shows that their position would lead to termination of the QE, which was further supported by the incoming data. Although the central would rather strengthen the euro slowly. Thus, this supported the euro and slid down while the dollar was able to grow during the U.S. trading session and further pushed the price lower than 1.22 as of the moment.

For today, there are is no major news from the U.S. or the eurozone, which will most likely continue the choppiness for the day. Support is found in the area of 1.2180 then move further towards 1.21.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #48: Jan 22, 2018 08:04 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 22, 2018

The euro is being traded steadily since morning today. It seems that it weakened during Friday and it was able to support the level of 1.22 following the rebound to the support area and soared higher which continues until today. There has been major news from the U.S. and the eurozone which would bring volatility in the market.

Although the volatility present was insufficient to push the pair in either direction and stayed within a tight range between 1.22 and 1.23 over the past few weeks. There is a risk for a government closure as the bill has been passed which was blocked in the Senate through suffrage. It is anticipated that there will be an interim bill which will occur during the U.S. session. Nevertheless, this would have an effect on the dollar amid the various problems the U.S. encounter in the past few years.

This would be problematic for the Trump administration, which is not surprising. There are reports where the debate between Merkel and SPD party would continue looking for a coalition for short-term. This would keep the euro buoyed up during this period of time. There is also a press conference by the end of the week which is anticipated by the market on the decision of ECB.

For today, there are no major news from the U.S or the eurozone, which is already anticipated to happen in the second half of January. Although, there is various economic news to be reconsidered on either side, which would induce the volatility at bay.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #49: Jan 24, 2018 02:13 AM

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 24, 2018

The Australian currency slightly declined amid Monday’s trading session and moved lower at the 0.7950 region. The rebound on short-term charts are expected along with the resumption of the consolidation period under the major level. A break over the 0.80 zone will enable the market to move upwards or impose a  “buy-and-hold” sentiment. However, creating a gap on top of the 0.81 region would indicate a  “buy-and-hold” tone with some kind of aggressiveness.

Usually, the gold market is needed in order for the AUD/USD to strengthen its move as well as to break out to the upside direction. It is expected that this situation will continue. Moreover, the gold markets drifted sideways aimed to hit the market in the near-term, but there is some support below which will trigger buyers to push again to the upside sooner or later. If this happens, the 0.78 area could possibly be the main contention area and short-term selling opportunity will hold up in that level. While a break down below there would hit the overall trend but this has low chance to happen with 10% of probability.

Expect for some massive volatility but there is an attempt at forming an attractive base in order to drive higher. It should be noted that the market will advance higher in the future but it should go along with gold.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #50: Jan 26, 2018 12:06 AM

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 25, 2018

The Kiwi dollar broke out to upside amid the trading session yesterday, reaching the higher level of 0.74 which is close to the top of the general consolidation area in the longer term and extends to the 0.75 region. The 0.68 below is the lowest area of the largest consolidation zone which means higher price level. However, the American currency is obviously struggling and it remains to be seen for any upward movements. While pull backs could possibly offer value.

A break on top of the 0.75 handle would enable the market to edged higher or an attempt to reach the 0.7750 or 0.80 level. The volatility is projected to continue and the short-term pullback will arrive sooner or later. It is advised not to get attracted in selling due to factor against the US dollar sentiment. Market players should also take focus on commodity markets and the overall risk appetite for this helps gauge the next probable movement of the New Zealand currency. This is the expected event in the longer-term correlation and the Kiwi together with the commodities should ramp up, this will have higher chance to happen if the “soft commodities”  rallied. In addition to it, shorting could completely change the sentiment of the Forex market.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #51: Jan 29, 2018 08:41 PM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 29, 2018

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been declining in the past few days as the dollar strengthens, which seems to be the focus at the present time. Following the comments of Trump, the dollar is steadfast due to the positive economic data in the U.S. This resulted in a reversal of profit for the dollar.

The dollar has been behind since the middle of December and the pound has been one of the strong contenders for this period of time. It gained more than 800 pips against the greenback. There are indications of exhaustion and weakness for the pair. However, it is not just the weakened dollar that buoyed up the pair, the strong pound along with all the soft Brexit plans at the end of the talks.

This supported the pound to rise across markets, especially against the dollar which has been weak recently. However, besides the rhetorics from Trump, there is an increasing expectation for the new Fed chief Powell to take his post, as well as strong incoming data that would strengthen the dollar and induce Fed for rate hikes. The center of attention will be on the dollar in the next few days which is also anticipated to persist for a short period of time.

There is no major report anticipated from the U.S. or from the U.K. today, which is not surprising as it is the first day of the week. However, since the end of the month is approaching, a lot of flows is already expected and trades to be positioned prior the new month which would bring volatility to the pound. This is likely to persist in the next few days since the end of the month is near. Pressure will be eminent in trading but support will be in the area of 1.40. 
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #52: Jan 31, 2018 11:24 PM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2018

Yesterday, it was forecasted that the British pound major pair will find it support in the level of 1.40 and it was anticipated to the line dividing the bulls and the bears. This happened as the price plunged down towards the area of 1.40 and further down for a short period of time before bouncing upward again.

Buying and the rebound of the pair were strong which resulted in an upward trend of the pair towards the area of 1.41. The trade stays beyond this level as of the moment. The volume of purchases indicates the strong presence of buyers. Nonetheless, it is essential for traders to keep in mind the end of the month is near and the prices are likely to be influenced by the month-end flows and any move at this period of time, which should be not be overlooked by traders.

Although, fundamental factors did not strongly affect the pair, as well as economically,  in the past few days which is already anticipated at the end of the month is approaching. These activities are moves largely are not part of the overall trend, which indicates that money flows have a bigger impact more than everything else. Hence, it is significant to wait on the sidelines and observe as this kind of trend will persist throughout the day since today is the last day of the month.

Regarding the economic news, ADP National Employment Report from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but none from the United Kingdom. The ADP data is considered as a prerequisite to the NFP data, which will be published on Friday. Traders should anticipate for a strong data to keep their expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at a faster rate in the succeeding months. In general, the market is hoping for three rate hike for the year but a positive outcome through high figures on reports are necessary.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #53: Feb 06, 2018 12:18 AM

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 5, 2018

During the Friday trading session, the market was a “risk off” move following,  which resulted in a rollover in the market. The latest high implies the trend to move upward in the long-term period.

The British pound rolled over against the Japanese yen and reached the new high, but has had difficulty in the latter part of the day. It breaks higher than the level of 155, which has been a significant level that would induce buyers to return. However, there is a tendency for a volatility in the market and traders should be ready for big moves. Later on, the pair is likely to move towards the level of 160 but it will take a few days or week to reach this point. The uptrend has been really strong which is why there will not be a massive correction but more of a pullback in the market.

The next target level would be at 163 but it might take some time to reach this level, although, it might take some time to reach this level. Moreover, pullbacks would also open opportunities for purchases which makes small deals to be the ideal strategy in this situation. Other than that, this market is sene to have a lot of noise, which is referred as the “Dragon” in the forex market. Risk sensitivity is still a  big deal for this pair, especially for British pound which is gaining strength. It is better to make sure for the pair to rise in value before placing bets on it, although this pair is likely to compete in the market very well.
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Reply #54: Feb 07, 2018 09:08 PM

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 7, 2018

Volatility was predominant during the Tuesday trading session as the U.S. dollar dominates the market, which had an unfavorable effect on both currencies. The market shows the relative strength of the market.

It has been bullish during the Tuesday trading session as the British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the euro did not fall, as much as, the British pound. For now, the pair will be based on their relative strength but since the euro did not drop as low as the British pound, traders are anticipated to trade and push the pair higher. The market is close to the level of 0.89 which is a fair value in the consolidation area. The upward momentum implies the uptrend of the pair towards 0.90 level.

A massive resistance was seen at the area of 0.90 which has been the upper boundary in the past and it will be not easy to break this level. Although, there is a bit of noise found lower than the level of 0.8875 which proceeds to offer support in the market. I would suggest buying on the lows but it will be part by part instead of a big move. The pair will break out of the consolidation area and proceeds to move up towards the level of 0.95. Alternately, it is also possible to a have a new low which would send the market to reach the level of 0.86 based on the long-term charts.
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Reply #55: Feb 12, 2018 02:31 AM

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 12, 2018

The American dollar rallied versus other currencies around the globe, and the Loonie seems different. The USD/CAD rally due to declining prices of the oil. The Canadian dollar is commonly used by currency traders as a substitute for the oil markets which means that when the WTI Crude Oil drop, the Loonie will typically follow.

The US dollar attempts to create some stand to resume the bullish pressure, this could be done if the oil markets continue to remain weak. An unidentified employment figure will be released on Friday from Canada but failed to help things. Looking forward, the interest rates in the United States are rising which indicates a good sign for the currency. With this, the buying pressure is projected to continue, however, there is a tendency that the opposite thing may happen. We could consider this upon breaking down under the hammer formation last week. Basically, it is a breakdown beneath the 1.22 handle. In the past, there are a lot of short-term volatility in the USD/CAD which normally occur upon the intertwining of the two economies.

It should be noted that the United States and Canada are each other’s biggest trading partners which often grind each other. It can be assumed that this point can be defined as a “crucial inflection”, so it is advised to maintain a small position and add when the market establishes itself well.


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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #56: Feb 19, 2018 08:17 PM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.



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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #57: Feb 21, 2018 09:49 PM

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 21, 2018

The single European currency paired with British pound had broken down during the course of Tuesday’s session. The EUR/GBP pair moved lower near the 0.88 mark which is a previous support and resistance. Hence, it should be expected that the market will have plenty of noise around that level.

Generally, the market will be noisy due to potential headline risk brought by the euro/pound pair in line with the negotiations of the European Union and the United Kingdom. Therefore, this problem might continue until the next couple of months that make trading tough over a long period of time.

Breaking down under the 0.88 region will allow the market to touch the 0.8740 zone. Otherwise, a rally from that point will push the market above the 0.8860 level or even to 0.90 eventually. This type of market requires players to take profits hurriedly for it’s nearly impossible to hover a trade in the longer-term, except when one is able to deal with wild swings for both profit and loss. Nevertheless, the general upward trend will resume since participants favor the EU stability against the uncertain future of the UK. It is possible to move on top of the 0.93 area.


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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #58: Feb 27, 2018 01:27 AM

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 26, 2018

The euro against the British pound broke lower than the Friday trading session and reach lower than the level of 0.88. There is a massive support around the area with a lot of noise in the long-term. 

The presence of noise will most likely persist with the headlines as the result of negotiations between Brussels and London which is likely to influence the pair. At the same time, traders should anticipate for volatility. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair ranges 300-pips and it will remain for some time until there is a definite proposition for the negotiation. The market should anticipate for this to continue in a while.

Traders could utilize in accordance to the stochastic oscillator as they will be trading back and forth in short-term. There is also a probability for negativity with the level of 0.87 in the floor below. The closer this level can be reached, it is wise to buy in this market and will be the focus on this move. Traders could sell at some point and volatility is likely to persist unless it turns around higher than the level of 0.8840. Hereinafter, buying is possible and continues to be volatile. However, if you are not strong enough and focus on the consolidation of the area and a lot of opportunities to gain profit in a well-defined rectangle.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #59: Feb 28, 2018 08:25 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 27, 2018

The euro against the U.S. dollar has been trading closely on either side at the level of 1.23 as the market presumes the pair to move further.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a tight range in the past 24 hours which is already anticipated in Monday trading session. Low volatility is not surprising in the current market condition. Traders are likely to position themselves for this week on Mondays which causes low volatility.  

Similarly, trading remained the same despite the speech of ECB President Draghi yesterday. The speech met the expectations with him saying positively on the growth of the economy in the eurozone. He is recognized to be dovish but the fact remains of the steady growth of the economy as reflected in the incoming data and remains positive in the past few months. This has preserved the euro to keep afloat in the past 24 hours although the movements have been very minimal.

The market is also anticipated to gain volatility and liquidity as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, price fluctuations to be inundated by trade positioning and monthly end flow. Options are also about to expire in the upcoming days, which will keep the market busy on particular price range.  

The market will probably focus on the dollar with the new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, to testify and engage the market waiting for signals on monetary policies and future rate hikes in the next few months. As for the economic data, both the durable goods data and the trade balance data from the U.S. will be published and if it did not meet expectations, the dollar is likely to roll downward.



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