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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 16318 times)
Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #15: Oct 12, 2017 11:15 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017

There is a consolidation in during the trading session of the EUR/USD pair as it fluctuates up and down for the day without specific trajectory. The Resistance area is found close to the 1.18880 and it cannot be determined yet the market will be able to break this area or its direction for short-term.

The price moved headed to the level mentioned and it seems that there will be a lot of selling to take place which would result in a minor correction. Although, there is choppiness present in the pair and it might be best to stay on the sidelines. The data from the U.S. particularly the PPI has no big impact on the movement of the pair and move sluggishly but steadfastly.

The dollar is moving behind with the NFP data came in weaker anticipated in the previous week. The FOMC minutes also gave a hawkish sentiment as awaited by the market. The trend is hinting for an uptrend of the EUR/USD pair to persist both for short and medium term while the question remains if the Federal Reserve will raise the rate for December and continue to affect the market.

Today, the market may get answers as the CPI data from the U.S. will be released later this day which put the Fed member at a worrisome state while dollar bulls are hoping for a positive output for today and keep open the possibility of a rate hike in December. Other than the CPI data, the retail sales data is also scheduled to be released for today which would greatly influence the short-term activity of the pair.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #16: Oct 17, 2017 03:02 AM

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 17, 2017

During the daytime trading on Monday, the American dollar traded sideways versus the Loonie dollar, followed by a break through the 1.25 handle. Eventually, the markets contained high volatility but the positive thing about this move is the reversed flow against the oil sector. The oil markets tend to rally as well as the U.S dollar but this appeared to be unusual which could give a negative sign for the CAD.

The 1.25 region below is projected to continue its attractiveness for the price but there is a possibility for the rally to resume according to the skeptical actions by the Canadian dollar.
A break over the 1.2250 mark even on the daily close will enable the market to keep on moving upwards or may be an attempt to reach the 1.2750 mark.

The markets would certainly be volatile due to the instability of oil industry along with some back and forth movements. Considering the massive volume of volatility, it is much preferred to gradually establish a position.

A break down underneath the 1.24 mark does not necessarily indicate a bearish tone again since dealing with the recent action seems difficult. While the markets would likely try to generate some kind of base. Moreover, the oil markets are moving nearer to the massive resistance which could further provide lots of bearish pressure towards the Loonies.

Take note that the Bank of Canada increased its interest rate and suddenly mentioned that the rate hikes should be considered as automatic. With this regard, the market appears to completely turn around against the CAD.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #17: Oct 17, 2017 04:07 AM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has touched on the level of 1.3300 during the Monday session yesterday. It dropped along the trend and declined as the dollar gains strength during this period of time. The pair was not that influenced following the release of a mixed data from the U.S. on Friday. Although the happening on Monday did had a minor effect to the pair.

It is assumed that the current stand of the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May would have an impact on the currency to the Brexit talks in Brussels but it did not go this way. Looking to the major reports, there will be several data scheduled to be publicized this week which includes the retail sales data and the inflation data. The market is about to position themselves considering the news on Monday which induced choppiness and weakened the market as seen yesterday.

Looking back on Friday session, it seems that the market has put aside the mixed data and rally at a higher price compared to almost all currencies. This was triggered but the reports where the candidate John Taylor was supported by U.S. President Trump to replace the current Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. He is recognized to be hawkish and has favored rate hikes at multiple events and if in case he was appointed, this would have a good effect to the U.S. dollar. Consequently, investors have begun positioning their assets which strengthened the dollar in the latter part of yesterday’s trading. 

For today, the CPI inflation data from the UK as well as the scheduled speech of the BOE Governor Carney which are presumed to cause volatility in the GBP/USD pair. A breakout at the level of 1.33 would result in a surge of 200 pips and could work similarly when it reaches the level of 1.3200 and maintains the consolidation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #18: Oct 25, 2017 11:53 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 26, 2017

The EUR/USD climb higher due to various reasons including the result of the meeting of the ECB, the scheduled statement and the press conference later this day. The dollar also weakened across the market which pushed euro to move higher. Moreover, today is a significant day for the week. 

The statement and announcement from the ECB are anticipated after the press conference of Draghi. As the market expects the release of the statement, the ECB would give their hints and plans related to QE tapering during the press conference. If they were able to give a definite plan and timeline, it would be a big help for the euro which is already presumed to rally after. The data from the eurozone gives out positive data and for this reason. Hence, the ECB does not have a reason to postpone the tapering but the pace of the program is still in question.

Draghi is exerting oneself not to appear hawkish in the past few months to avoid pushing the euro too high. It is yet to be known today is the policy is to be sustained. It will not be an easy task for him since the euro will most likely go up since there is no definite timeline of the QE tapering from the central bank. Other than that, the data from the U.S. in the past 24 hours has also been positive as the data on durable goods came out stronger than anticipated. As for the dollar, the GDP data would be significant which will be released from the U.S. tomorrow.

For today, consolidation is anticipated during the first half of the day while the traders are already preparing for the ECB release in the afternoon. Volatility will also be present in the trading following the announcement and the press conference. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines until everything has settled down.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #19: Oct 30, 2017 12:28 AM

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar closed the week high which makes the next week trading to be awaited by traders. Initially, the dollar has been moving steadily but the negative data the previous week pushed the pair to climb above towards 1.26 level with risks imposing the possibility for a breakout towards the level of 1.27.

The movement of the trend was driven by the retail sales data from the Canada which was published in the previous week that gave out a week data and has further escalate doubts to the BOC which has an inclination to increase its rates in short-term. The loonies may have declined but with the incoming Monetary policy statement from the BOC and press conference would open the possibility to become hawkish again. Although, they have been clear in the past that the central bank would not raise their rates for the remaining months in 2017 and presumably even in the early months of the following year. This lessens the hope for it and frustrated the market which resulted to a sell-off in the loonies.

On the other side, the dollar has held steady and was further pushed by a positive GDP data that may have raised the possibility of a rate hike in December. The pair moved towards the 1.28 level and even further towards 1.29 by the end of the week. However, the prices were affected by the reports on who will be the succeeding Fed Chair with chances to be Powell. At the same time, the oil prices soared which assisted in strengthening the Canadian dollar and drove the price to close for the week.

For this week, the Canadian dollar is anticipated to rally in the beginning which includes settlement of payments in oil in the present time of the year. In the latter part of the week, the labor data from the U.S. and Canada are to be released which would have an impact on the prices of the pair. Moreover, if the results of the data are good, the USD/CAD pair would rally and this would confirm the next Fed rate hike in December.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #20: Nov 02, 2017 03:58 AM

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 2, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar dropped for a bit during the start of the Wednesday. Soon after, the price bounced up towards the 1.33 level. This pulled back from the said level and tried to reach the level of 1.3250, which has been the focus of sterling traders. Overall, the market should proceed to move higher as it was able to achieve reach a higher level prior to that. Choppiness will also persist in the market and the market will most likely attempt to reach the level higher than 1.35. The 1.3650 level will still be the main resistance level for long-term positions. However, if this area is surpassed, the market could further go up for a longer term.

For now, it is best to take advantage of buying in the lows. If the traders successfully break the level of 1.3250, an option is to wait as this could still go down towards the level of 1.32 and if it breaks down from there, it could further go down to 1.31. It would not be long before value seeking traders would come in cases of pullbacks since there is a strong bullish pressure.

There is a possibility for the uptrend to stop when it breaks lower than the level of 1.30. Hence, this makes small trades to be the ideal position in this trade. Positions should be put on hold until another successful breakout occurs above the level of 1.3650. From here on, this serves as an investment and would be determined through the patience of traders in the current situation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #21: Nov 08, 2017 01:22 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 8, 2017

The EURUSD pair had a dipped again during the early trade behind weaker than expected production figures from Germany, the data also declined in September. The retail PMI in the European region dropped but retail sales further softened. Meanwhile, Chain Store Sales in the United States had bounced back in the recent week and the Loan Officers survey of U.S. presented standards easing.

Moreover, the euro-dollar pair drove lower and tested the 1.5050 level.The pair bounced back in the late session and failed to reacquire the 1.16 handle. The resistance can be found at 1.1722 region near the 20-day moving average. The prices resumed forming a  head and shoulder reversal pattern with the neckline with a gapped at 1.1660 zone. The target support can be estimated by subtracting the neckline above the 1.1160 head. The momentum sustained its negative stance. The MACD histogram prints in the red, showing a descending trajectory towards a lower exchange rate.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #22: Nov 10, 2017 01:05 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017

The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.

The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #23: Nov 15, 2017 11:55 PM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2017

The euro against the U.S. dollar rallied higher during the beginning of the trade session for five succeeding days and being tested for a 1-month high. The market failed to maintain the current rate as the greenback gathered momentum amid a risk aversion situation. The U.S. data came out positively even better than anticipated. The retail sales data came in higher as well as the CPI report, which supported the U.S. yields and raised the rate of the dollar.

The EUR/USD climbed higher as it reaches close to the October high at the level of 1.1858. The exchange rate has reached once again the 50-day moving average at the level of 1.1786, which is currently the short-term support in the trend. Additional support was found close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1663. The impetus of the currency pair has been moving at a good pace as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index initiating a buy signal. This happened as the MACD line, which is the 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA, crossed higher than the MACD signal line found at the 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD line.
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Reply #24: Nov 17, 2017 02:39 AM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017 

The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.

This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.

This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.

For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #25: Nov 20, 2017 06:04 AM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.

The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.

Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.

For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.

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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #26: Nov 21, 2017 10:02 PM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 21, 2017

The single European currency paired with the US Dollar descended and resumed to create a mini-bull flag formation, however, the fundamental and political events coincided against the EURUSD yesterday. The German PPI came in weaker than expected while the failed plan of Merkel to generate a coalition placed pressure to the EUR/USD.

The currency pair currently trades sideways and stayed around the 1.1800 region, after being pushed downwards amid earlier trading hours to test the 1.1704 support area close to the 10-day moving average. The short-term resistance entered the mark 1.1771 around the 50- day moving average. The positive momentum declined as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black. The trajectory of the indicator appears to be negative which implies consolidation towards the pair. The RSI also traded sideways showing a reading of 52 fixed in the middle of the neutral range. It further suggests consolidation.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #27: Nov 21, 2017 10:40 PM

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has a choppy which lead the whole trading session in the past 24 hours.Although, this was influenced by the events in Germany which have put pressure on the market. The euro was affected by the news of the coalition talks in Germany which resulted in a breakdown and declined to a much lower rate during the Asian session. It seems that the euro will be weakened but this was reversed during the trading session as it gained strength.

The euro climbed higher reaching the level of 1.18 as the market ignored the happenings which moved the whole trend higher. It was clearly shown that there is some pressure in the pressure which would be more obvious later on. It initiated during the U.S. session but the euro declined once again lower than the 1.1750 by the end of the day and will most likely continue.

Merkel has been facing an obstacle that has weakened both locally and internationally amid the Brexit negotiations. She would want to be in alliance with other parties although, she knows that this would not be easy. Another option is for her to go for another election but this would bring more uncertainty. It cannot be determined if she will come out stronger or would weaker position in the election. This shaken the German market which also affected the euro.

For today, there is no major news anticipated from the Eurozone or from the U.S. The euro is anticipated to trade in a weak manner in the course of the day and reached lower than the level of 1.17 until there are still pressure present in the market.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #28: Nov 22, 2017 12:45 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was traded in a narrow range during the shortened week because of the holiday that affects both America and Japan on Thursday. The dollar gained momentum at the beginning following a positive home sales report that boosted the U.S. greater than 2 percent.

The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index rose in October as well as the Retail store sales in the past week which is due to the busy holiday season.

The euro major pair rebounded at the support level close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1718 which stays afloat higher than the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. Although, it was not able to initiate liquidation for long-term. There is a resistance found close to the

November highs at 1.1860. The forward momentum is declining as the MACD histogram print is in black with a southward trajectory which could lead to the consolidation of the pair.
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Andrea ForexMart
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Reply #29: Nov 23, 2017 01:14 AM

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017

The GBP/USD pair gained more strength from the American dollar than the British pound after the publication of FOMC minutes. The announcement of budget and UK economic outlook had a slight impact towards the pound, hence, the weakness that was left in the dollar provided support to the Cable pair in order to edged higher.

This day is predicted to be highly volatile for the GBP due to the UK budget announcement and FOMC minutes in the United States later. If this happens, the GBPUSD would decline to the 1.3220 mark during the London hours after the issued news relative with the Britain’s budget, however, when the details were already published the flow is expected to reverse.

The announced budget seems to have huge borrowing amount that softened the sterling initially but reduced the trend productivity. This helped the pair to make a reversal and drive upwards near the 1.3250 level. Moreover, the GBP remained unchanged until the issuance of the Fed minutes which said that majority of the members agreed with the rate hike in December, but the following increase is not yet sure.

Mainly, concerns regarding inflation continues and the central bank stated that they wanted to wait for further upcoming data prior making a final decision for a further rate increase. The focus of the market is centered on the dovish statement that will weaken the greenbacks as well as to support the Cable to move near the 1.33 level. The pair is currently trading above 1.33 and would be better to push towards the mark 1.34 in the short-term.

Ultimately, the second estimate for the UK GDP is expected to release and marks the onset of the long weekend due to US Thanksgiving celebration. This indicates that liquidity may dry up while volatility could possibly lower down. In that event, it is not surprising for a boring consolidation for the rest of the day.
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